Trois Chevaux: Comparing transit plans

So, here we are - less than 2 months from the election - when the real campaign starts. It's still pretty crazy to me that this will have gone on for almost 11 months - and I hope that the next time around, changes are made. We've seen that much of what is said in the first 6 months is taken with a grain of salt, as well as the polls that we see - and it's almost a waste for any candidate to spend any significant time - when most voters don't make up their minds before the end of summer.

But, we've made it - and we're down to the 'big three' that we thought we would see. I'm still a little surprised that Karen Stintz backed out before Sarah Thompson or Soknacki - but they'll follow suit soon I'm sure - there's only so much money you're willing to spend on a losing platform.

The 'big three' - Rob Ford, Olivia Chow, and John Tory

Over the next month - I'm going to compare some of the biggest issues that the candidates are campaigning on (for just cause) - and surprise, surprise - I'm starting with transit.

We've heard their speeches, their lobbying, and their reasoning - but how different do these three plans look, how bold are they, and how realistic a shot in hell do they have of happening? Well - I'll try to impartially tell you.

Olivia Chow: Stintz 2.0...Cheap and Easy

Olivia Chow's Full Transit Plan

Olivia Chow's plan looks great - and I really like that she's put some emphasis on buses. Buses are the least 'sexy' part of any transit system, but they are the most versatile, and absolutely vital for a successful system. They are a low risk, high reward way to get people moving in areas that they might not be (or might not be moving well enough).

The highlights:

• Downtown Relief Subway Line
• Light Rail on Finch and Sheppard East
• Electrification of GO Lines
• Revert Scarborough Subway to Light Rail

Cost:

$15 million on buses + $3.2 billion on DRL + $0 on LRT Lines & GO Electrification (Dependant on provincial and federal dollars)

Where will it go?

I feel as though Chow's team has stretched themselves a mile wide, but only an inch deep. There is no way that Toronto will make decisions, let alone move forward on more than a couple of new transit projects during her potential term as mayor. She wants to get shovels in the ground now, but the debates around GO electrification, a DRL are challenges themselves - yet she wants to reverse council's recent decision on the Scarborough subway. Like I've mentioned, I might not like the decision - but it's made, so I think it's best to move forward. I think that this plan is for dreamers, not builders, and there's no way all of the pretty yellow and green get built. My guess is that if Chow gets elected, she'll get unanimous support on the increased bus funding (and it will make a difference), and the go ahead for the DRL; but she'll likely fail to get any traction on the GO electrification (since she'd have to work closely with the Liberal government).

Status if elected: Partially completed (Downtown Relief Line)

John Tory: Get on the GO



John Tory has the least ambitious of the three candidates, in the sense that he proposes only one new line, but suggests that it solves many of the issues that other plans try to address with multiple lines. Tory suggests that electrification of the GO lines is the most obvious, and realistic way to build transit, and I can't disagree, having suggested something similar myself a couple years back.

The highlights:

• Electrification of GO Lines
• Connection with Bloor/Danforth in East & West to create relief on current system
• Support for Scarborough Subway

Cost:

$2.5 billion + future property tax revenue

Where will it go?

Tory took a bold (and what some consider boring) approach to transit, in utilizing an already existing rail corridor for transit. He piggybacked on the Ontario Liberal government's plan to electrify the GO rail line, to build a London Overground type of service to compliment the subway system. If aligned properly, the plan does address the relief that the Yonge and Bloor lines need, as well as reaching some of the Northern, transit-starved parts of Etobicoke and Scarborough. Tory's plan looks the most practical on paper, but in order to get it done, he'll need to win over the support of Metrolinx stakeholders who see this idea as a pipe dream. Add to that, he'll need to convince people that this system will actually run through corridors that actually need transit - as GO tracks typically run outside of dense areas. Ultimately, it's high-risk, high-reward - Tory's put all of his eggs in this basket, and even if his funding plan is rock solid, he's still dependant on the Province.

Status if elected: Completed

Rob Ford: $5 Footlong...wrong subway



Rob Ford's plan is not surprising in how it looks, and what it proposes: "subways, subways, subways". He suggests that we kill any light rail that we can, and bury it all underground. I actually like the way his plan looks, and it ties the city together more than any of the other plans, in the least obtrusive way. Nobody argues against the performance and convenience of subways - but how do the costs look, and is this even possible?

The highlights:

• Downtown Relief Subway Line
• Revert Finch and Sheppard East LRT to Subways
• Bury Eastern Portion of Eglinton Crosstown
• Support for Scarborough Subway
• Future ideas for Toronto Council in 2435 ( ••••••• )

Cost:

$9 billion (Ford camp estimates) / $12 billion + (Council approved panel estimates) 

Where will it go?

So - what's the likelihood of seeing this plan unfold, should RoFo make his way back into the mayor's chair? Well, the Scarborough Subway is a done deal, the DRL will no doubt get support (these aren't unique to Ford), but his other more 'bold' ideas of changing all light rail to subways will never make the cut - in fact they've already been voted down in the past. That, coupled with the fact that he does not have any new ideas on how to fund these bohemith projects, means they're dead before they begin.

Status if elected: Partially completed (Scarborough subway)

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In the end - these are all bold ideas - Hell, any major addition should be considered bold - but what people seem to forget about whoever it is that we elect mayor, is that they do not have any power alone to get these projects built. Whoever you vote for on October 25th - make sure that it's the person whom you think will be able to bring council together to make decisions that are best for Toronto - because that's what a mayor should be.

I read a tagline for a book recently (fittingly on the subway) that said "a real leader lays the tracks, and lets others drive the train" - so let's hope our next mayor can do that.